The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Propels Villa's Surprising Title Charge
It was 60 days ago when the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as his coach admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a sign or a cause of Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. As the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning any of their first six matches, find themselves a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. History, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, while the victories have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a team which has just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem strangely fragile – yet right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition had more shots and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.